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Risk: Theory and Practice for the Simulation of Credit Risk

 
00:00

Theory and Practice for the Simulation of Credit Risk

Presenter: Norddine Bennani: Co-founder, BMA S.à r.l. Risk Management Solutions 

Course Running Time: 6 Hours 45 Minutes

Intensity Models (Running Time: 1:12:14)

Credit Market Models (Running Time: 1:20:59)

Alternative Intensity Models (Running Time: 32:14)

Focus on Recovery Rate (Running Time: 1:13:44)

Focus on Prepayment and Liquidity Risk (Running Time: 52:42)

Application to Counterparty Risk (Running Time: 20:36)

A Review of the Framework (Running Time: 10:36)

Intensity Models  (Running Time: 1:12:14)

  • A Simple and Classical Approach
  • Review of Standard Intensity Models
  • Joint Simulation of Credit Spread and Default
  • Calibration and Simulation
  • Intensity Models: Summary

Credit Market Models  (Running Time: 1:20:59)

  • Notations and Model Setup
  • Introducing the Survival Probability Measure
  • Credit Market Model
  • Model Limitations: Default Event and Portfolio Credit Risk
  • Extended Credit Market Model
  • Practical Implementation and Calibration

Alternative Intensity Models (Running Time: 32:14)

  • Limitations of Standard Intensity Models
  • A Tractable and Practical Solution
  • An Markov HJM Framework for the Default Intensity

Focus on Recovery Rate (Running Time: 1:13:44)

  • Modelling Recovery Rate
  • Joint Simulation of Credit Spread, Default Event and Recovery Rate
  • Coping with Systemic Risk
  • A Spot Recovery Rate Model
  • Practical Implementation and Calibration

Focus on Prepayment and Liquidity Risk (Running Time: 52:42)

  • A Brief Overview of Prepayment Risk Modelling
  • Taking into account Liquidity Risk
  • Numerical Applications
  • A Simplified Approach to Capture Prepayment

Application to Counterparty Risk (Running Time: 20:36)

  • A Brief Introduction to CVA
  • Counterparty Risk, Wrong -Way and Right -Way Risk
  • Counterparty Risk and Recovery Rate

A Review of the Framework (Running Time: 10:36)

  • Blending Everything Together
  • Simulation: A Critical Risk Management Tool

Summary:

This presentation addresses the technical and practical challenges of the latest simulation techniques for Credit Risk.

It will focus first on the simulation of credit spread, default probability and default event. Then other critical elements of Credit Risk, including recovery rate and liquidity, will be reviewed in details.

The presentation takes a practical approach, taking into account market available information for calibration and benchmarking as well as implementation constraints.

Several numerical examples will be provided to illustrate model specific strengths and limitations.
 

Session One
1. Introduction

                1.1 Market and Regulatory Context
                1.2 Setting-up the Credit Framework
                1.3 Structural vs. Reduced Form Models

2. Intensity Models

                2.1 A Simple and Classical Approach
                2.2 Calibration and Simulation
                2.3 Numerical Examples             

Session 2
3. Credit Market Models

                3.1 Introducing the Survival Probability Measure
                3.2 Calibration and Pricing Examples
                3.3 Model Limitations: Default Event and Multi-Name Products
                3.4 Extended Credit Market Model
                3.5 Practical Implementation and Calibration               

Session 3
4. Advanced Intensity Models

                4.1 Limitations of Standard Intensity Models
                4.2 A Specific Form for the Intensity
                4.3 Calibration and Simulation
                4.4 Numerical Examples


Session 4
5. Focus on Recovery Rate

                5.1 Modelling Recovery Rate
                5.2 Joint Simulation of Credit Spread, Default Event and Recovery Rate
                5.3 Coping with Systemic Risk
                5.4 Numerical Examples

Session 5
6. Focus on Prepayment Risk and Liquidity Risk

                6.1 A Brief Overview of Prepayment Risk Modelling
                6.2 Taking into account Liquidity Risk
                6.3 Numerical Examples

Session 6
7. Application to Counterparty Risk

                7.1 A Brief Overview of Correlation Modelling 
                7.2 Counterparty Risk, Wrong-Way and Right-Way Risk
                7.3 Numerical Examples

Session 7
 8. A Review of the Framework

                8.1 Blending Everything Together
                8.2 Simulation: A Critical Risk Management Tool

Academic level

Topic

Credit Risk

Published date

8 July 2014

Price

£199.00

Presenter Bio

Norddine Bennani

Norddine Bennani is Managing Director at Bennani&Marchal Associates. He has more than 10 years experience in quantitative analytics, working in the Front Office department of major investment banks. He was Head of Quantitative Analytics – Credit Structured Products at Barclays Capital before joining the Correlation Trading desk at Deutsche Bank. His primary focus has been on Credit Derivatives. He has been involved in large scale projects, from developing new pricing and risk frameworks to the implementation of trading and risk systems. He has first hand experience of risk and regulatory capital management of a large credit portfolio. Norddine Bennani has published a number of working papers on credit derivatives modelling and risk management techniques. He has been presenting at various conferences on quantitative analytics and risk management. He graduated from the Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Administration Economique (ENSAE, Paris), holds a Master in Probability Applied to Finance from the University of Paris VI and is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA).